COLA will not be determined until October 2025 because it depends on inflation data from the third quarter, which is collected between July and September. First, a 2.3% COLA could accelerate the timeline to Social Security Trust Fund depletion,

The 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) began with benefits payable to retired Social Security beneficiaries when their January 2025 payments arrived.

The actual cost-of-living-adjustment won't be announced until October, but early predictions say the increase will be a smaller percentage than the 2025 increase.

When the Social Security Administration (SSA) announced last October that benefits would only be rising by 2.5% in 2025, a lot of people were disappointed. Now the reality is that a smaller COLA is indicative of cooling inflation.

Starting in January, Social Security recipients saw a 2.5% increase in their monthly payments as the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) took effect. Benefits for February were sent out Wednesday. Social Security payments are sent on the second, third and fourth Wednesday of the month, depending on the recipient's birth date.

The latest Cost of Living Adjustment prediction shows Social Security recipients could be in for another year of a small increase.

The nonpartisan Senior Citizens League expects the COLA to be 2.3% for 2026, based on a forecast that inflation will drop throughout the coming year. Another forecast by independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson puts the expected COLA increase at 2.1%.

This year marked a big change for Social Security benefits. Payments from the Social Security Administration hit a milestone they never have before -- and it's both good news and bad news for seniors.