YR4 has a 2.2% chance of striking Earth in seven years, but recent updates keep pushing the odds in the wrong direction.

It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.

The asteroid currently has about a 2 per cent chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency.