It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.

A large asteroid dubbed 2024 YR4 now has a 2.2% chance of hitting the Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency. That estimate, made Friday, works out to approximately a one-in-45 chance of direct impact, which also means a 44-in-45 chance of a miss.

YR4 has a 2.2% chance of striking Earth in seven years, but recent updates keep pushing the odds in the wrong direction.